Harga LNG di pasar SPOT Asia Timur naik mendekati musim dingin
EAX Indeks ini dihitung berdasarkan nilai aritmatika rata-rata dari DES (delivered ex-ship) di awal bulan dan assessment di awal bulan kedua untuk pengiriman ke Jepang, Korea Selatan, Taiwan dan China. Indeks akan memberikan nilai ukuran untuk komoditas LNG di kawasan Timur Asia dan merupakan referensi harga yang dapat diandalkan dengan acuan pada pusat data permintaan (demand centres).
Berikut kutipan beritanya:
East Asian
spot LNG prices climbed sharply between late August and mid-September amid
growing global competition for FOB (free on board) volumes and a deteriorating
outlook for alternatives to gas-fired generation in Japan.
The October
‘14 EAX contract closed at $13.381/MMBtu on 15 September, marking a
$1.781/MMBtu rise since it became the front month contract on 18 August. The
November contract climbed by $2.437/MMBtu over the same period to $14.487/MMBtu.
As the new
front month opened on 18 August, demand in the East Asia appeared muted
initially. For most Japanese utilities, inventories remained well-stocked as
cool late August storms suppressed air-conditioning demand. South Korea’s KOGAS
was heard to be marketing 10 cargoes to Japanese buyers on a swap basis in
return for volumes in the second half of the winter.
On the
supply side, Pacific basin plants continued to produce surplus cargoes with PNGLNG, Australia’s North West Shelf, Indonesia’s Bontang and Tangguh plants all
marketing excess production for September or October delivery.
On 21
August, the highest bid for the second half of October was heard at
11.75/MMBtu, while the lowest offer for the same period was recorded at
$12.50/MMBtu.
By the end
of August, the momentum began to swing towards sellers, as competition
intensified for FOB volumes while the dependence of Japanese utilities on
gas-fired generation increased.
In the
Pacific basin, price expectations were lifted on the back of higher price
levels in the recent North West Shelf tender. In late August, the PNG LNG plant
was understood to have sold two cargoes for October delivery in the high
$12.000s/MMBtu.
Meanwhile,
strong competition from Brazil appeared to rule out additional supply from the
Atlantic Basin, as Brazil’s Petrobras secured a free-on-board tender cargo
marketed by Trinidad’s PFLE consortium in excess of $12.000/NMMBtu.
In Japan,
Chugoku Electric purchased at least one October cargo due to the uncertain
outlook for the restart of its 1GW Shin Onada coal-fired plant, which suffered
a fire-related outage in mid-August. At the start of September, Kyushu Electric
was obliged to file corrections to paperwork around the restart of the two
nuclear reactors at its 1.78GW Sendai nuclear plant. Meanwhile Kansai
Electric’s LNG demand was further boosted by the return to operations of the
fifth unit at its Himeji gas-fired plant.
Amid
relatively thin liquidity, there appeared to be limited consensus among buyers
on bid levels for the front-month contract. On 1 September, the highest bid for
H2 October jumped to $13.500/MMBtu, but by the following day, the highest bid
for the period had fallen to $12.750/MMBtu, with the lowest offer heard at
$13.5000/MMBtu.
In the first
half of September, the premium for November deliveries increased, as buyers
sought to insure against cold early winter temperatures. In September, Russia’s
Sakhalin Energy reportedly sold a tender cargo for November delivery into Japan
in the mid-$14.000s/MMBtu.
On 15
September, the EAX was assessed in contango, with H1 October at $12.725/MMBtu,
H2 October at $14.037/MMBtu, H1 November at $14.400/MMBtu, H2 November at
$14.575/MMBtu and H1 December at $14.675/MMBtu.
In Europe, participants turned their attention to
reloads as the Asian premium to north-west European prices increased to more
than $5.000/MMBtu for both October and November delivery. A first reload from
the Barcelona terminal was completed on 14 September on the Cool Runner. The
re-export marked the eighth conventional-sized reload from European terminals
to be completed in the second half of August and first half of September. (Sumber www.icis.com)Semoga bermanfaat. Bravo!!!
Komentar